56 seats for opposition in final Israel poll

56 seats. That is the number of Knesset seats the opposition bloc is projected to win according to the final Channel 12 poll released on Friday. The survey places Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party at 22 seats, a figure that exceeds the 19 seats projected for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party.

Voters across Israel cast their ballots on Tuesday morning in the first general election since the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023. Polling stations opened at 7:00 a.m. local time. Exit polls are scheduled to air at 10:00 p.m., offering preliminary projections before official results are finalized in the coming days.

The Channel 12 data shows a tight race with no clear path to power for either side. Netanyahu’s bloc is projected to secure 50 seats. The opposition bloc is projected to take 56 seats. Neither group reaches the 61 seats required for a majority without additional support. Arab parties are projected to win a combined 16 seats, though most opposition leaders have pledged not to form a governing coalition with them.

Likud faces a steep decline from its current standing. The party holds 32 seats in the outgoing Knesset but is projected to drop to 19. Naftali Bennett’s B’Yachad party is projected to win 14 seats. The shifting dynamics reflect a political environment altered by three years of war and security concerns.

Key issues dominating the campaign include the Israel Defense Forces manpower crisis and the contentious haredi conscription legislation. Voters are also weighing calls for a state commission of inquiry into government failures surrounding the October 7 attack. Traditional debates over Palestinian statehood have moved to the background, with most parties agreeing against its establishment.

The fate of Benjamin Netanyahu, who has led Israel for 19 non-consecutive years, remains central to the debate. The opposition bloc has argued for his removal from office, citing accountability for the attacks. Conversely, the sitting coalition seeks to retain power despite the polls showing a slim margin for the opposition.

Voter turnout will influence the threshold required for smaller parties to enter the Knesset. The threshold is set at 3.25% of valid votes. According to the Taub Center, a party needs 165,635 votes to cross this threshold if turnout reaches 70%, similar to the 2022 election. As turnout increases, the required vote count rises, making the race tighter for smaller parties.

Several parties are fighting to clear this bar, including Ofer Winter’s People of Israel party and Yoaz Hendel’s the Reservists-Economics party. Whether these groups cross the threshold could impact the ability of both major blocs to form a stable coalition. A slight shift in support could determine which small parties gain representation.

Police prepared for public order disruptions on election day. Approximately 20,000 police officers, Border Police officers, and volunteers were deployed nationwide. Forces were stationed at thousands of polling stations to safeguard the integrity of the elections and ensure the democratic process proceeded in accordance with the law.